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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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