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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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