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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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