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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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