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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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