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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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