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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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