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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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