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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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