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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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