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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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