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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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