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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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