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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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