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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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