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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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