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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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