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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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