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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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