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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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