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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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