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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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