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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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