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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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