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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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