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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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