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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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