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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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