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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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