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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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