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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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