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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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