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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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