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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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