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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
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