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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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