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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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