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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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