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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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