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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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