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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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