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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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