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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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