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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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