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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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