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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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