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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
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