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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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