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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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