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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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