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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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