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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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