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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
...
Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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