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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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