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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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