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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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