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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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