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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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