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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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