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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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