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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 June 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO TOTAL 600 MMST IN 2021, 11% MORE THAN IN 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 600 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 61 MMst (11%) more than in 2020.
The increase is dri ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
The In-Person Maritime Event
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
culminates successfully in Dubai
Press Release: ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“Counter cyclical investments.” usually take place by investing in a “bad” market at the point that ensures that the acquir ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
KOMIPO INVITED 5600 NAR COAL OFFERS FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY; 520,000 MT PER YEAR
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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