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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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