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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 July 21
END TO COAL POWER BROUGHT FORWARD TO OCTOBER 2024
Press Release: The deadline to phase out coal from Great Britain's energy system has been brought forward by a whole year, highlighting the UK& ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY BUILD 600 NEW UNPROFITABLE COAL PLANTS? - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Governments in Asia are planning 600 new coal plants that could lose investors $150 billion and derail efforts to limit temperature rise in line wi ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
FIVE ASIAN COUNTRIES ACCOUNT FOR 80% OF NEW COAL POWER INVESTMENT - THE GUARDIAN
Five Asian countries are jeopardising global climate ambitions by investing in 80% of the world’s planned new coal plants, according to a rep ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR RECORDED AN IMPROVED REVENUE IN Q1 2021; REVENUE INCREASED BY 49% QOQ TO US$160 MILLION ON THE BACK OF COAL PRICE RECOVERY
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (“DOID”) released its consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owned ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
BUMA SIGNED MINING AGREEMENT WITH ADARO
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into an agreement for the p ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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