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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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