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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent r ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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