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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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