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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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