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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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