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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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