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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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