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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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